St. Cloud, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

165
FXUS63 KMPX 122353
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
553 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with breezy southerly winds tonight before rain moves in
  by early tomorrow morning. Western Minnesota is expected to
  receive the bulk of the rain.

- Warmer temperatures return through the end of the week, with
  little chance for precip until early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

You know it`s a quiet weather day when the main thing to watch has
been some low-level stratus! We`ve seen temperatures be slow to warm
up across parts of western Wisconsin, but many areas are seeing
the eastern edge of the cloud deck erode away while the western
edge fill in along the MN/WI border (near and south of the Twin
Cities). Southeasterly winds have been gusty, especially across
western MN where some sites have gusted up to 35+ mph. Winds
will continue overnight, but should lessen up a bit after sunset
this evening.

A neutrally tilted shortwave trough will slide east across the
Northern Plains overnight, bringing a chance of rain for much of the
Upper MS River Valley tomorrow. Hi-res models continue to focus the
main axis of precip across western and central MN, with lighter
amounts along and east of the I-35 corridor. The driving factor for
this will be the moisture transport associated with the LLJ. The
HREF mean PWATs crank values of 0.8"+ north during the morning while
winds are still near 35 to 50 kts in the low-mid levels. The
LLJ then fizzles out during the day while the primary axis of
ascent ahead of the trough moves over Wisconsin, cutting off the
moisture transport. The latest 18z WPC 24 hour QPF map
highlights this idea well, with widespread 0.25" west of I-35
and less than 0.1" east. There is potential for a handful of
counties in southwestern MN to exceed 0.5" depending on where
the main bands of precip fall throughout the morning. Some
heavier showers are possible at times across western MN,
otherwise much of us will see light on-and-off showers as the
system moves through the area. Rain and lingering drizzle will
clear by the evening, but clouds will likely stick around
through Thursday.

The end of the week should stay relatively dry and quiet with
surface high pressure settling in across the midwest. Pressure
gradient lines will start to tighten up heading into Saturday
as a low tracks across the US/Canada border. This will result in
another period of breezy S/SE winds similar to today.
Temperatures will trend above normal, pushing into the upper
50s by Saturday. Long range models continue to suggest an
amplified pattern setting up next week, with multiple shortwaves
attempting to eject off a deep trough over the western CONUS.
Given the complexity of the setup, there is still a large spread
across ensembles and deterministic solutions in regards to
timing, precip amounts & type, and location. The earliest
potential system across the various solutions looks to come a
week from now, however some models stay dry until Thursday.
There will be a lot of energy to deal with out there, it`ll just
be a matter of sorting the specifics out as we get closer in
view.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

MVFR stratocu across eastern MN has been scattering out, but
some guidance insists on redevelopment this evening. It appears
more likely than not we`ll see mostly clear skies, but the TAFs
hedge toward a low potential for redevelopment. Clouds will
increase overnight with rain developing across western MN, which
will remain there for much of Wednesday before breaking up and
heading east later in the day. IFR conditions are expected
across western MN with VFR or MVFR farther east.

KMSP...There are no significant concerns through the period.
Will continue to monitor any signs of stratocu redevelopment
this evening. The steady rain Wednesday will remain west with
some lighter activity arriving later in the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind light/variable.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Borghoff